Thanks in part to warmer waters in the southern Atlantic Ocean, experts are predicting a worse-than-usual hurricane season.
according to a new forecast out Friday morning from Colorado State’s Tropical Meteorology Project, which uses 60 years of data to assess current weather conditions.
“Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which five to nine could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including two to four major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher),” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) most recent report.
That’s in contrast to an average season, which “produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes,” the NOAA says.
Five named storms — Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don and Emily — formed prior to Aug. 1. “This is slightly above normal,” says senior meteorologist and climatologist David Dilley, of Global Weather Oscillations, whose predictions for the 2017 season call it “the most dangerous in 12 years.”
The Weather Company’s most updated research calls for an active Atlantic tropical season — one that’s higher than the region’s long-term averages from 1950 to 2016, but in line with a so-called recent “active period” from 1995 to the present.
Through its the Caribbean and Central America Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project, forecasters predicted that there is a 41 percent probability of one or more name storms tracking within 50 miles of St Vincent and the Grenadines.
They also stated that there is a one percent chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the multi island state.
Colorado State’s Tropical Meteorology Project