We continue to monitor Invest 99-L for the possibility of development into a tropical depression or storm as it moves into the Lesser Antilles, then heads in the general direction of the Bahamas late in the week.
A Hurricane Hunters reconnaissance mission examined Invest 99-L early on Tuesday and found that it had an elongated and poorly defined circulation center.
Convection has been pulsing up at times in association with 99-L, despite a battle against some dry air near the eastern Caribbean Sea. However, the National Hurricane Center said the shower and thunderstorm activity was disorganized as of Tuesday afternoon.
Regardless of whether it is 99-L, a tropical depression or tropical storm, this system will bring heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday.
For a tropical cyclone to form, there needs to be persistent convection (thunderstorm activity) near a well-defined area of low pressure at the earth’s surface.
The National Hurricane Center says this system has a medium chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next 2 to 5 days. Another Hurricane Hunters reconnaissance mission will investigate 99-L on Wednesday, if necessary.
For now, a tight consensus of our guidance suggests the disturbance should continue in a general west or west-northwest trajectory the next several days. It should reach the Lesser Antilles late Tuesday or early Wednesday and then spread through the northeastern Caribbean Islands into Thursday.