Since the passage of SVG’s Recovery & Stimulus Package, the global and regional projections for economic decline have become more pessimistic.
The world, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, is looking at a more pronounced, more severe economic fallout than was anticipated even three months ago.
Minister of Finance Camilo Gonsalves says the Economic Prospects1 predicts a global contraction of 5.2% – the worst such decline in eight decades. Advanced economies are expected to shrink by seven per cent, and “output of emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to contract in 2020 for the first time in at least 60 years.”
According to the Global Economic Prospects publication, “Current projections suggest that the COVID-19 recession will involve a 6.2 percent decline in global per capita GDP, making it the deepest global recession since 1945-46, and more than twice as deep as the recession associated with the global financial crisis.” Dr. Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics at Harvard University, goes further, stating that “the short-term collapse in global output now underway already seems likely to rival or exceed that of any recession in the last 150 years.”2
Unlike previous economic crises, where there are winners and losers – or at least a division between “affected and relatively unaffected” countries, the Coronavirus pandemic has spurred a truly global collapse. Over 90% of countries will experience GDP contractions in 2020/21, the largest such share of countries since 1870.