(Barbados Today) – Pollster Peter Wickham is predicting a more than five percent swing away from the incumbent Democratic Labour Party (DLP) during Thursday’s general election, well over the two percent needed for a change of Government.
And with the political scientist dismissing the fringe parties’ chances, he said the signs point to a Barbados Labour Party (BLP) victory.
“The historic reality is that we have small swing elections and big swing elections. 2013 was clearly a small swing election, this one is likely to be a big swing election largely because the two follow in sequence.
So even if I were to set aside any poll data and say, let’s look at it purely in terms of history, we are looking at a swing in excess of five percent, bearing in mind that the swing needed to change the Government is less than two percent,” Wickham told Barbados TODAY.
However, Wickham refused to project a seat count, although he anticipated that the BLP’s Kirk Humphrey, whom he described as one of the most effective communicators in the region, would give Prime Minister Freundel Stuart a run for his money in St Michael South.