Hurricane Maria and Irma are still fresh in the minds of many Caribbean residents, but experts are already looking ahead to the next hurricane season.
In a news release, researchers from storm prediction company Global Weather Oscillations said the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season “will be somewhat of a repeat of 2017.”
Professor David Dilley, a senior research and prediction scientist with the company, accurately predicted that 2017 would be the most destructive and costly hurricane season since 2005.
Professor David Dilley says that “some United States zones and the Caribbean Islands are currently in their strongest hurricane landfall cycle in 40 to 70-years. This is a Natural ClimatePulse Cycle that produced extremely active and dangerous hurricane conditions in some zones back in the 1950s and 60s in the Lesser Antilles – and in the 1940s in the United States.
Mr. Dilley predicts that 2018 will be somewhat of a repeat of 2017 – but some hurricane landfalls will occur in different locations this year. You can expect 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, potential for 4 United States hurricane landfalls – 2 of which will likely be major impact storms. And once again – some Caribbean Islands will have another dangerous season. On the average, the entire Atlantic Basin has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes.
The reason for another destructive hurricane season is 3-fold. Although ocean water temperatures have cooled across the Eastern Atlantic – the water temperatures continue to run warmer than normal from just East of the Lesser Antilles and especially in the Caribbean region and the Atlantic near the United States.
This is very similar to the ocean temperatures of last year, and this will again be conducive for tropical storms and/or hurricanes forming and/or strengthening near the Lesser Antilles and close to the United States.
Mr. Dilley also expects ENSO Neutral Conditions (no El Nino) that are conducive for active seasons, and the Bermuda-Azores High-Pressure Center will again be in a favourable location – thus allowing more named storms to strengthen as they move east into Caribbean region and toward the United States.
2018 Hurricane Names