A weak tropical wave is forecast to approach the islands tonight. Instability associated with this wave will generate a few light to moderate showers across Saint Vincent and the Grenadines later tonight and into tomorrow.
By tomorrow evening, a strong Tropical Wave (Disturbance) is forecast to approach the islands. The tropical wave is associated with an area of low pressure in the Central Atlantic and is about 1400 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands as of 2 pm this afternoon. It has a medium chance of development as it moves across the Atlantic during the next two (2) days.
The latest analysis shows that a gradual increase in wind speeds will be evident from late Sunday. A further increase can be expected on Monday, approximately (30 to 60 km/h) as the system approaches the region. Strong gale winds of up to 88 km/h are forecast for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Model guidance indicates showers associated with this wave, approximately 2 inches of rainfall from late Monday night to Tuesday night is possible.
By Monday, seas forecast to rise with swells peaking to 2.5m. By Tuesday, rough to very rough sea conditions are anticipated with swells peaking to 4.8m.
A statement will be issued by the Saint Vincent Meteorological Services on winds and sea conditions and on the associated shower activity with this disturbance. It is therefore advised to stay tuned to the updates made by the Meteorological Office and National Emergency Management.